KI
Once again the AI shifts forward one month and is now taking the loans till end of March 2017 into account. Yes, 2017, as mentioned in the last Roundup loans are only used in the AI if they reached the maturity of 1 year. First quarter is gone at the beginning of the year AI was calculated with 24.779 loans, now the number raised to 26.864 so approx. 2.000 loans more! In September we will reach the 30.000!
Default Statistics
First defaults in 2018 are showing up, low percent numbers of course because before default at least 2 months debt collection are happening. All risk classes excpet HR have low one digit percent numbers, HR already has 10.3% defaults!
One statistic anomaly. At the Tab „Accuracy“ I compare the Bondora calculated default probability against the real ones. Here we seest zu sehen:
Bondora default probability : 70-75%
Real defaults: 100%
I‘ve looked into that and found out that only 1 loan is fulfilling this criteria – unfortunately it‘s defaulted, so 100%! Time will heal this.
